What is the reason for the conflict?
Ukraine, a part of the Russian empire for generations before being a Soviet state, gained independence when the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991. It sought to remove its Russian empire legacies and establish closer relations with the West.
Kremlin-friendly Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s declaration to refuse an alliance agreement with the European Union instead of tighter relations with Moscow sparked major demonstrations that resulted in his overthrow as president in 2014.
Russia retaliated by colonizing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and supporting a nationalist insurrection in Ukraine’s east.
Ukraine and the West blamed Russia for deploying soldiers and weaponry to support the nationalists. Moscow rejected this, claiming that the Russians backed the nationalists voluntarily.
As per Kyiv, over 14,000 people have perished due to the war in Donbas, Ukraine’s eastern economic base. The current scenario in Ukraine follows eight years of conflict and, aside from Vladimir Putin, a new group of leaders on both sides.
Since the start of the conflict in 2014, two independent areas in Donbas have grown more thoroughly incorporated under Russian rule, which is not acknowledged by any central government, even Russia’s. Individuals with deep ties to Moscow were appointed after a succession of inexplicable prosecutions, killings, and abductions of self-proclaimed public authorities and commanding officers in the regions.
Despite Moscow’s increasing authority, the regions continue to be a grey zone for civil and labour rights and secretive and illicit commerce. With over 700,000 Russian passports having already been handed to citizens of the areas, a move that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described as an “indication of invasion”.
Following the invasion of Crimea, popular sentiment in Russia seemed solidly in Putin’s favour. However, as Russian President Vladimir Putin approaches his 23rd year in power, there are indications of a credibility crisis in the nation, triggering the present upsurge.
What are diplomatic attempts underway?
There are several diplomatic methods. The first one is the Trilateral Contact Group, which comprises Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OSCE). The organization initially met in July 2014, and subsequently, in Minsk, Belarus, they inked a contract.
However, it did not prevent severe warfare from starting the following winter, when pro-Russian and Russian forces gained a succession of critical locations in Donbas, mercilessly forcing Ukrainian soldiers back.
The Trilateral Contact Meeting was held again in Minsk and concluded the Minsk 2 pact. This pact outlined a strategy for establishing a cease-fire and eventually reintegrating the seized Donetsk and Luhansk areas through polls, a special status in Ukraine’s legislation, and forgiveness for individuals engaged in the armed revolt.
The Normandy Format, which includes Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany, is the second significant medium. It is a set of discussions related to the Minsk pacts. Also, there are NATO-Russia Council and OSCE-Russia discussions.
What if Russia invades Ukraine?
Although some have been harsher, western countries have put their weight behind Ukraine. The United States and the United Kingdom have sent weaponry, whereas Germany intends to provide a field medical centre next month but would not provide weapons systems.
There has also been a debate about imposing penalties on Moscow. If Putin moves his army into Ukraine, the US and its European supporters have openly threatened to strike Russia economically like never before. However, allies have provided little information, believing that it is best to keep Putin thinking, although Washington and London have mentioned personal measures aimed at the Russian president.
Eliminating Russia from the SWIFT banking system, which transfers money from bank to bank throughout the world, is one of the most complex financial acts they might take, harming Russia’s GDP both instantly and distant future.
The action might isolate Russia from most international financial activities, notably overseas oil and gas production revenues, which contributes to even more than 40% of the government’s revenue.
The US also has one of the most potent economic weapons over Putin entering Ukraine: restricting Russia’s connection to the US currency.
Dollars continue to control financial activities throughout the globe, with billions of dollars changing hands daily.
