Being an agriculture-driven economy, India depends a lot on the timely and adequate arrival of the monsoon for its agricultural success. From June to September, the southwest monsoon provides nearly three-quarters of the country’s annual precipitation and is critical for water supply for agriculture. But the variability of monsoons — when it rains, how much it rains, how rain is distributed — is a big challenge to Indian agriculture. Despite contributing to the regular fluctuations in monsoon behaviour, their understanding and implication of such phenomena are vital for food security, economic stability and sustainable development.
The monsoon matters on things that go beyond agriculture. For instance, it affects water resources, energy generation, and general ecosystem health. With over 1.4 billion people relying on a healthy agriculture sector for both sustenance and livelihoods, changes in the monsoon can trigger a domino effect on livelihoods, public health and even political stability. This is not merely a scientific question but an urgent socio-economic one, demanding mitigation and adaptation across many scales. Global climate factors, regional dynamics, and human activities make the study of monsoons so complex and essential. By tracing these interconnections, we may better equip ourselves to tackle the task of an unpredictable monsoon.
Monsoon Variability: An Overview
Monsoon Variability can Vary in timing, volume and distribution of rainfall during the monsoon season. This variance can be explained by several factors, such as:
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A positive IOD phase in the eastern Indian Ocean will cause more heating in the eastern part of the Indian Ocean, increasing the temperature gradient between the eastern and western Indian Ocean, which causes increased monsoon rainfall.
- Climate Change: Rising global temperatures have disrupted the regular seasonal winds that brought consistent rains in the past, leading to erratic rainfall and extreme weather events.
- Land use change: deforestation and urbanization disrupt the rainfall as well.
Role of Indian Monsoons in Agriculture
Since monsoons in India have undergone so many changes, some improvements have been made in irrigation and water management. Approximately 60% of the country’s net sown area depends on rainfall, per the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). Here are some key points about the monsoon’s importance in agriculture:
- Water Supply: Monsoon rains grow the rain-fed rice, pulses and oilseed crops.
- Recharging groundwater: Monsoons recharge aquifers, providing water for the rabi (winter) cropping season.
- Livelihoods: More than 50% of India’s workforce engages in agriculture; thus, the performance of monsoons is one of the most decisive factors in rural income.
Impacts of Monsoon Variability on Agriculture
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Late Onset or Early Exit
Impact: A delay in monsoon onset or early withdrawal interferes with sowing time, resulting in lower yields. For example, in 2009, a late monsoon resulted in a 22% decrease in rice yields.
Crops Affected: Paddy, cotton, and sugarcane are prone to timing-related anomalies.
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Uneven Spatial Distribution
Impact: Impacts range from floods to droughts across different regions. In 2022, for instance, eastern India had excess rainfall, while central India had deficits.
Crops Affected: Excess rain and moisture stress have caused standing crop damage to rain-fed crops, including millets and pulses.
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Heavy Rain and Flooding
Impact: Devastation, Waterlogging, Soil Erosion, Crop Damage in Bihar and Assam, and regular inundations have destroyed agricultural lands, impairing food security.
Crops Affected: crops like paddy and vegetables are most vulnerable.
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Drought Conditions
Impact: Extended dry spells in the monsoon season cause droughts, damaging crop yields. The 2015 drought affected about 334 million people and caused major agricultural damage.
Crops Impacted: The most vulnerable are sorghum, maize, and pulses, usually grown in rain-fed areas .
Impacts on Society and the Economy
- Economic Losses: Weak monsoon performance reflects on agricultural GDP, which accounts for around 16-18% of the total GDP of India. A deficit monsoon can also widen the import bill for food grains, putting pressure on the economy.
- Rural Distress: No weather erratic monsoons lead to farmer distress, which leads to indebtedness and, in the worst cases, farmer suicides. This led to more than 10,000 farmer suicides every year in drought years, according to the National Crime Records Bureau.
- Inflation and Food Security: With agricultural production in decline, food inflation leads to staple goods becoming unattainable for poorer families.
- Migration: Poor monsoons result in mass rural-to-urban migration in search of other jobs (pressuring urban infrastructure)
Adaptation strategies and mitigation measures
- To develop man-made structures, behaviour, or methods to maximize the usage of available rainwater. For example, The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sichayee Yojana (PMKSY) scheme is for Enhancing the Wastage of Water.
- Encouraging the production of drought-resistant crop varieties can help mitigate fickle monsoons’ impact. For example, Various millets like ragi and bajra are resilient to water stress. Behaviour change and Paleoclimate insights can be adapted to make agricultural practices climate-resilient — For example, Mixed Cropping, agroforestry and soil conservation practices to adapt to climate variability and extreme weather.
- Weather Forecasting & Early Warning Systems, and accurate weather forecasts help farmers decide which side to sow and when to irrigate the crops. In India, for example, it could be the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which issues real-time weather alerts and guidance.
- Monsoon-related economic risk mitigation: policies like Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) provide support against crop loss caused by the variability of monsoon
The Road Ahead
Variable monsoons have devastating effects on Indian agriculture, necessitating long-term planning and adaptative strategies. Only by focusing policymakers on resilience within the agricultural sector derived through innovation, infrastructure, and education can society emerge equipped to address future shocks.
Investment in R&D is needed to develop climate-resilient crop varieties and sustainable farming practices. Integrating approaches for sustainable agriculture through policy reforms in resource management, land use planning, and climate adaptation strategies. Proximity to data about weather conditions, crop insurance, modern farming techniques, etc., would enable farmers to better manage the monsoon’s variability.
Conclusion
Even today, the variability of monsoon is a big challenge for Indian agriculture, which has ramifications for the economy and society at large. But while natural factors such as El Niño and climate change still play a role in monsoon patterns, humans are making things worse through climate change, deforestation and urbanization. We must combine technology, policy support, and community participation to stem the impacts of monsoon variability on Indian agriculture. By adopting resilient practices and embracing adaptive measures, India can navigate the uncertainties of monsoon variability and safeguard its agricultural future.
